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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1064

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 17, 2018 14:36:04
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 171435
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171435
    MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-171630-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1064
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0935 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of New England and southeast New York

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 171435Z - 171630Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Bands of thunderstorms are expected to intensify through
    this afternoon, resulting in an increasing threat for damaging wind
    gusts. A watch will likely be issued within the next 1-2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar data illustrate a broken band of
    thunderstorms extending from southern New Hampshire southwest
    towards the Hudson Valley late this morning. This cluster has
    persisted along the southeastern fringe of a subtle shortwave
    impulse (embedded within larger-scale cyclonic flow) over New
    England. Ahead of these storms, visible satellite suggests gradual
    low-level destabilization, evidenced by a slow decrease in wave
    clouds and an increase in boundary-layer cumulus. Amidst a very
    moist air mass (e.g., regional 12Z soundings sampled PWs around
    1.6-1.9"), further surface heating should promote MLCAPE values
    around 1000-2000 J/kg through this afternoon. In turn, thunderstorms
    are expected to further intensify over the next several hours.

    Relatively uni-directional deep-layer wind profiles, combined with
    30-40 kt of mid-level flow, will encourage lines of storms capable
    of damaging winds, especially this afternoon. Considering this
    growing severe potential, watch issuance will likely be needed.

    ..Picca/Guyer.. 07/17/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

    LAT...LON 41937482 43367234 43687174 43797082 43677050 43447052
    42767075 41817113 41607208 41397363 41457445 41787488
    41937482



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