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ACUS11 KWNS 162052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162052
NEZ000-SDZ000-162245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1061
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Areas affected...Parts of South-central and Southwestern South Dakota...Nebraska Panhandle into north-central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 162052Z - 162245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Cumulus clouds have become increasingly agitated within
the discussion area. A conditional threat exists for large hail and
severe wind gusts, with storm initiation/evolution uncertain.
Convective trends will be monitored for a possible WW issuance later
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus clouds across south-central and southwestern
South Dakota along and near a theta-E gradient and over the Black
Hills. Afternoon heating across the area, with low- to mid-60s
dewpoints in place, has lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg.
With continued heating and approaching mid-level ascent, some CAMs
develop a cluster of storms in South Dakota and move them
south/southeastward into Nebraska. However, given upstream mid-level
ridging, uncertainty exists with regard to if storms will initiate
and how much coverage there will be. The greatest threat for severe
hail will be with any initial storms, should they develop, in South
Dakota as effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts will favor storm
organization. Any storms that do develop will also pose a risk of
severe wind gusts given the steep low-level lapse rates and high
surface temperature/dewpoint spreads.

Additional storms may also move out of Wyoming into southwest South
Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle later this evening. These storms
will primarily pose a severe wind gust risk given the expected
linear/cluster storm mode. Given the overall uncertainty in the
exact evolution of this event, convective trends will continue to be
monitored for the possible issuance of a WW.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 44590375 44870285 44770180 44640107 44350068 43800030
42750006 41740010 40990137 41070214 41060327 42050367
43460386 44590375



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