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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1060

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 16, 2018 20:05:04
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    ACUS11 KWNS 162004
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162004
    WYZ000-162200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1060
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0304 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of central/northeastern Wyoming

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 162004Z - 162200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Initial storm development has taken place along the Big
    Horn Mountains. Storm coverage intensity is expected to increase
    with the approach of mid-level shortwave trough. Large hail and
    severe wind gusts will be possible. A WW may be needed in the next
    few hours.

    DISCUSSION...A few storms have developed along the Big Horn
    Mountains this afternoon. As a mid-level shortwave trough now over
    western Wyoming, per latest water vapor imagery, approaches,
    increased large-scale ascent should aid in continued storms
    development. As storms move off of the higher terrain, they will
    encounter a modestly unstable airmass where dewpoints have generally
    held in the mid- to upper-50s. Continued surface heating will will
    yield MLCAPE values from 1000-1500 J/kg. An initial discrete storm
    mode will be favored with 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Long,
    straight hodographs and mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km suggest
    large hail is possible. Large temperature/dewpoint spreads will also
    favor gusty outflow, particularly as storm outflow congeals with
    time. A WW may be needed in the next few hours.

    ..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/16/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 44740725 44900674 44690585 44370452 44180411 43470407
    42880419 42750407 42430412 41590411 41350436 41450501
    41800577 42180688 42740761 43790785 44360785 44740725



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