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ACUS11 KWNS 221537
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221537
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-221800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana...Southern
Mississippi...Southwest Alabama...Far Western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 221537Z - 221800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal tornado and wind damage threat will persist
into the early afternoon across parts of southeast Louisiana,
southern Mississippi. The threats will likely affect southwest
Alabama and the far western Florida Panhandle later today. No
weather watch is expected due to the marginal setup.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1011 mb low over
southeast Louisiana with a warm front extending eastward across
south-central Mississippi. A moist airmass was located south of the
front with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F. Water vapor
imagery showed a shortwave trough over the lower Mississippi Valley. Large-scale ascent associated with this feature will continue to
support thunderstorm development along the warm front into the
afternoon where a marginal wind damage threat will persist.

Further south across far southern Mississippi and southeast
Louisiana, surface dewpoints are near 70 F and instability is
considerably stronger. The RAP suggests that SBCAPE is estimated to
be near 1000 J/kg right along the Mississippi coast. The Mobile
WSR-88D VWP does show enough speed and directional shear in the
lowest 2 km AGL for a marginal tornado threat. However, due to
widespread clouds and precipitation ahead of the activity, most of
the instability is offshore suggesting that any tornado threat will
remain marginal.

..Broyles/Hart.. 04/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 32228846 31898933 31658983 31339026 31009034 30769035
30079004 29338980 29108918 29878854 30398728 32108749
32228846



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ACUS11 KWNS 072014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072014
ILZ000-MOZ000-072245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019

Areas affected...Portions of east-central MO into central/northern
IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 072014Z - 072245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and strong/gusty wind threat may
exist with thunderstorms that develop this afternoon. Watch issuance
appears unlikely at this time due to the overall marginal
environment.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms
should develop within the next hour or so along a surface trough
from east-central MO into central/northern IL as large-scale ascent
preceding a shortwave trough overspreads this region. Immediately
ahead of the surface trough temperatures have generally warmed into
the upper 60s to lower 80s, with dewpoints mostly in the mid 50s to
lower 60s. Resultant weak instability, with MLCAPE in the 250-1000
J/kg range, and effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt may be sufficient
for some updraft organization. Isolated large hail may be the
primary threat as cool mid-level temperatures and modestly steepened
mid-level lapse rates associated with the shortwave trough move
across this region. Strong/gusty downdraft winds could also occur,
particularly where low-level lapse rates have been steepened through
diurnal heating. Overall storm coverage and the limited
thermodynamic environment suggest the severe threat will probably
remain marginal/isolated, and watch issuance appears unlikely at
this time.

..Gleason/Hart.. 04/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...

LAT...LON 38579192 39519056 40788975 41428942 41858910 41598816
40918774 40108761 39628786 38588893 38108984 37859081
37889185 38579192



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