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ACUS11 KWNS 161733
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161732
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-162000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1058
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Lower MI...northeastern IN...and
northwestern OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 161732Z - 162000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gusts capable of producing mainly
tree damage will be possible through the afternoon. Watch issuance
is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Low-level convergence along a cold front across Lower
MI remains weak due to veered west-southwesterly winds ahead of the
front. Regardless, ample diurnal heating has allowed for convective temperatures to be reached, and thunderstorms have recently
developed both along and ahead of the front. A positively tilted mid/upper-level trough and associated 30+ kt mid-level southwesterly
winds are forecast to remain mostly displaced to the north of the
front through the afternoon. Resultant effective bulk shear should
tend to be limited to no more than 20-25 kt across central/southern
Lower MI into northeastern IN and northwestern OH. These weak shear
values should keep storms from becoming very organized. Moderate
instability (up to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) will likely develop by mid
afternoon as temperatures reach into the 90s, with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Even with this moderate instability, poor
mid-level lapse rates will likely curb more robust updraft
accelerations. A few thunderstorms could become capable of producing
sporadic strong/gusty winds with associated tree damage given the
potential for water-loaded downdrafts. The forecast thermodynamic
and kinematic environment suggests the severe threat will remain too isolated/marginal to warrant watch issuance this afternoon.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 07/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 43388570 43568518 43988443 44518394 44758334 44628319
44318321 44078278 43878258 43478245 42998238 42558252
42318289 42028309 41618339 41218388 41008461 41028547
41208604 41648626 41928608 42308585 42628574 43038571
43388570



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