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ACUS11 KWNS 142248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142248
MNZ000-NDZ000-150015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1056
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0548 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018

Areas affected...Central into northeast North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 277...

Valid 142248Z - 150015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 277
continues.

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development will continue to pose
a risk for severe weather across much of central into northeastern
North Dakota through this evening. Trends will continue to be
monitored for the possibility of an additional watch to the east
later this evening.

DISCUSSION...Initial isolated discrete supercell development across
west central North Dakota, which initiated near the nose of the
corridor of stronger pre-frontal boundary layer heating (where temps
are now in the mid/upper 90s) persists and could linger to the west
of Bismarck another couple of hours. Otherwise, thunderstorm
activity is in the process of increasing ahead of the southeastward
advancing cold front across north central North Dakota into southern
Manitoba, near the southern periphery of a vigorous short wave
trough progressing across and east of Saskatchewan.

In the presence of moderately large CAPE and strengthening deep
layer shear, further upscale growth, intensification and
organization of convection appears possible either side of the
international border area into the 00-03Z time frame. This may be
accompanied by an increasing risk for potentially damaging wind
gusts this evening, which may impact at least much of northeastern
North Dakota.

..Kerr.. 07/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 48979690 47619738 46599974 46150157 46420205 47070106
47700062 48359947 49229917 51549782 51569601 49599644
48979690



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