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ACUS11 KWNS 150130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150130
MNZ000-NDZ000-150300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1057
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0830 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018

Areas affected...Northeastern North Dakota into far northwestern
Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 277...

Valid 150130Z - 150300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 277
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms, mainly across northeastern North Dakota, may
continue to pose some severe weather potential into late evening
before diminishing. An additional weather watch now appears
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent and shear associated with the
vigorous short wave impulse progressing east of the Canadian
Prairies has provided support for the evolution of a broken squall
line across southern Manitoba into the vicinity of international
border area. This includes an evolving cluster of storms straddling
the eastern North Dakota/Manitoba border, and additional cells as
far south as areas near/west of Devils Lake. Pre-frontal
instability, to the east of the axis of stronger daytime heating,
appears sufficient to maintain this activity eastward across the
remainder of northeastern North Dakota (mainly northwest through
north of Grand Forks) through the 03-5Z time frame. This will
probably be accompanied by at least some risk for strong surface
gusts before activity diminishes as it begins to ingest drier more
stable air to the east.

Farther south, isolated ongoing vigorous thunderstorms to the south
of Bismarck, seems likely to diminish within the next hour or two,
in the presence of waning boundary layer instability and weaker
shear/forcing for ascent.

..Kerr.. 07/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 49449651 48969660 48439763 47889940 48259994 48999898
49569781 49449651



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