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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1055

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, July 14, 2018 21:41:20
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 142141
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142140
    ILZ000-MOZ000-142315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1055
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018

    Areas affected...portions of southern into central IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 142140Z - 142315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong, locally damaging wind gusts will be possible
    late this afternoon across portions of central IL. A watch is not
    expected.

    DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms have become loosely organized
    across west-central IL this afternoon. A few severe gusts have been
    noted near the St. Louis metro area over the last hour and some
    linear organization has developed further north into central IL.
    Strong heating of a very moist boundary layer has resulted in MLCAPE
    greater than 2000 J/kg across the MCD area. Modest deep layer
    effective shear around 30 kt is present and likely aiding in the
    loosely organized cluster/line segment. Furthermore, steep low level
    lapse rates and PW values approaching 2 inches could result in a wet
    microburst or two. Eastward extent of the severe threat will be
    limited by earlier cluster of storms across east-central into
    southeast IL, which has stabilized the boundary layer. Given the
    limited area and isolated nature of the threat, a watch is not
    expected, but a few strong/locally damaging wind gusts will be
    possible.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/14/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 38949060 39889070 40329076 40989049 41269010 41258971
    41008917 40488881 39628864 38948876 38718894 38488951
    38529026 38949060



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