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ACUS11 KWNS 142018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142018
NDZ000-SDZ000-142215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1054
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018

Areas affected...Dakotas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 142018Z - 142215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms, some possibly severe, are
expected to develop along a frontal zone as it moves across North
Dakota.

DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating is contributing to
substantial buoyancy across the pre-frontal Dakotas where surface
temperatures have warmed into the 90s. Low-level parcels are nearing
their convective temperatures as evident by an expanding cumulus
field along the frontal zone as it surges southeast into the western Dakotas/northeast WY. It appears scattered thunderstorms will evolve
along the wind shift within the next 1-2 hours as the front
encounters increasingly moist/unstable air mass. Latest CAMs
guidance supports this scenario with at least a broken line of
storms evident in most solutions along the boundary as it spreads
into central ND. Locally severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail are
possible with this activity.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 07/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 45800314 47430208 48950085 48919889 46950013 45630178
45800314



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