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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1051

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 13, 2018 20:38:44
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 132038
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132038
    KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-132215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1051
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0338 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

    Areas affected...Central KS into far southeast NE and extreme
    northwest MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 132038Z - 132215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong storms may produce small hail and gusty
    winds. An isolated damaging wind gust can not be ruled out. The
    overall threat should remain limited and unorganized and a watch is
    not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
    ahead of a weak surface low and in the vicinity of a surface
    boundary draped across central KS into southeast NE. Strong surface
    heating of a fairly moist boundary layer has resulted in MUCAPE
    values greater than 2000 J/kg. As a result, briefly robust updrafts
    are possible. However, storms likely will not maintain strong
    intensity very long given weak deep layer shear and poor midlevel
    lapse rates. Given this lack of longevity of stronger updrafts,
    large hail potential will be muted, though some small hail is
    possible in strongest storms. With low level lapse rates around 8
    C/km and PW values from 1.75-2.0 inches, some gusty, locally
    damaging winds are possible as storm updrafts collapse.

    ..Leitman/Goss.. 07/13/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 39869982 40649741 40779631 40559542 40159523 39809533
    38779642 38249736 37949816 37869893 38179927 38959985
    39470004 39869982



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