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ACUS11 KWNS 131742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131741
IAZ000-MNZ000-131915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1050
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

Areas affected...Northern IA...Southeast MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 131741Z - 131915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Risk of locally damaging winds is increasing across
northern Iowa and southeast Minnesota.

DISCUSSION...Remnant MCV from Thursday night convection has
translated into northwest IA. Over the last hour or so thunderstorms
have gradually organized along the leading edge of precip/debris
field. With surface temperatures now warming into the mid 80s it
appears a corridor of modest buoyancy will potentially support
strong thunderstorms as they propagate northeast along a weak front.
Latest radar data suggests the small bow-type structure that has
formed over Calhoun County IA is moving northeast at roughly 30kt
and this activity may be maintained over the next few hours as it
traverses favorable instability/low-level confluence zone.

..Darrow/Goss.. 07/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON 42769499 43849220 43099125 42369227 41939459 42769499



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