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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1047

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, July 13, 2018 00:36:12
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    ACUS11 KWNS 130036
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130035
    WIZ000-MNZ000-130200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1047
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0735 PM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018

    Areas affected...Southern MN into western and central WI

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274...

    Valid 130035Z - 130200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will continue to pose a damaging
    wind threat across southern MN into western WI. The threat may
    persist downstream of WW 274 into parts of central WI and trends
    will be monitored for potential watch issuance to the east of WW
    274.

    DISCUSSION...Strong to severe convection continues along and just
    ahead of the surface cold front. The most intense convection
    currently is located across western WI with a bowing segment that
    has development more orthogonal to the surface boundary. This bowing
    segment is tracking into an area of strong MLCAPE greater than 2000
    J/kg and on the southern periphery of stronger effective shear near
    30-40 kt. On this current track, storms are expected to move outside
    the current severe thunderstorm watch around 02z. Should the line
    maintain current intensity, or organize further, a downstream watch
    may be needed across parts of central WI. Convective trends will be
    monitored over the next hour or so.

    Across southern MN, storms have struggled to maintain intensity due
    to the undercutting nature of the surface front. However, any storms
    that can develop along or ahead of the front will still pose a
    strong wind threat over the next few hours.

    ..Leitman.. 07/13/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...

    LAT...LON 45679171 45778999 45508931 45018905 44258914 43898994
    43819198 43779284 43589464 43579545 43759583 44199560
    44739427 45679171



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