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ACUS11 KWNS 122205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122205
MTZ000-WYZ000-130030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1045
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0505 PM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018

Areas affected...Portions of northeastern/east-central WY and far
southeastern MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 122205Z - 130030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind threat should continue
through the early evening. The coverage of severe thunderstorms will
likely remain too isolated to warrant watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
along and just east of the Bighorn Mountains due to weak low-level
upslope flow and a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving over this
area. A weak surface front resides to the south of this region, and
limited moisture remains in the post-frontal environment. Still,
ample surface heating across much of northeastern into east-central
WY has allowed surface temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to
lower 80s. MLCAPE has likewise increased into the 500-1000 J/kg
range with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km
present. Although the low and mid-level flow will likely remain
limited through the evening, there is enough veering with height to
support generally 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Multicell to
marginal supercell structures should be the predominant storm modes,
with an associated large hail and locally damaging wind threat.
Current radar/satellite trends suggest the severe threat will likely
remain quite isolated through the evening, before diminishing with
the loss of daytime heating and increasing convective inhibition.
Therefore, watch issuance will probably not be needed.

..Gleason/Hart.. 07/12/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 43910652 44460650 45100633 45330590 45390495 45150419
44420412 43680406 42970415 42560465 42480562 43410640
43910652



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