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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1046

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 12, 2018 23:37:10
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 122337
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122336
    SDZ000-NEZ000-130100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1046
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0636 PM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of north-central/northeastern NE into south-central/southeastern SD

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 273...

    Valid 122336Z - 130100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 273
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Mainly an isolated strong to damaging wind threat
    continues across WW 273.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms that developed this
    afternoon across north-central NE and south-central SD along a weak
    cold front have been mostly disorganized owing to stronger mid-level
    winds remaining displaced to the north of the front. Visible
    satellite imagery shows additional convection forming across
    southeastern SD along the front as of 2330Z. The airmass to the
    south of the front remains hot/unstable, with MLCAPE up to 3000-4000
    J/kg across northeastern NE/far southeastern SD. Steep low-level
    lapse rates could encourage isolated strong to locally damaging
    downdraft winds with the more robust thunderstorms. The main
    limiting factors that should keep the overall severe threat isolated
    through the evening remain weak shear across the warm sector and the
    tendency for storms to develop northeastward and behind the surface
    front.

    ..Gleason.. 07/12/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 42780200 43489927 44169664 42559667 42079830 41480026
    41370197 42780200



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