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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1043

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 12, 2018 19:47:39
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    ACUS11 KWNS 121947
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121947
    IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-122215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1043
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0247 PM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018

    Areas affected...Western/Northern Nebraska...Far Northeast
    Colorado...and Southern South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 121947Z - 122215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are developing across portions of western Nebraska
    and should increase in coverage to the east/north throughout the afternoon/evening. Damaging winds are possible.

    DISCUSSION...An increasingly agitated cumulus field is present
    across western Nebraska and some cumulus clouds have formed farther
    to the east along a surface front into northern Nebraska. Surface
    temperatures are reaching the 90s and dewpoints are in the mid 60s
    to mid 70s across the area. Continued destabilization will increase
    buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-3000+ J/kg) during the afternoon/evening.
    Shear is mostly weak across the area of interest, although some
    marginal shear does exist across northwest Nebraska into South
    Dakota. Scattered multicellular convection is expected to develop
    across the area through the afternoon, initially focusing along the
    boundary running from southeast South Dakota through northeast
    Colorado, and will likely organize upscale into a QLCS this evening.
    Given the steep low-level lapse rates (8.5+ C/km) and DCAPE of 1000+
    J/kg, strong wind gusts are likely and severe wind is possible. The
    wind threat may increase if a QLCS does form later this evening.

    ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 07/12/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...
    CYS...

    LAT...LON 39960214 40350241 40760309 41720326 42920305 43020230
    43339996 43549910 43759743 43799676 43199634 42619626
    42269695 42009816 41380039 40530046 39960214



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