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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1042

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 12, 2018 17:43:13
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    ACUS11 KWNS 121743
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121742
    NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-122015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1042
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018

    Areas affected...South Carolina and portions of eastern Georgia and
    southern North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 121742Z - 122015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are developing across central South Carolina as
    convective temperatures are being reached. Strong wind gusts are
    likely and severe wind is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Storms are expected to continue developing as
    convective temperatures are breached across the Carolinas and
    portions of northern/eastern Georgia. Storm development should also
    be focused along a surface boundary stretching westward from eastern
    North Carolina through northern Georgia. Storms are developing in a
    buoyant environment characterized with 1500-2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE,
    but there is mostly weak shear/flow aloft, which should limit
    upscale organization. DCAPE of 800-1200 J/kg with a steep low-level
    lapse rates (8.5+ C/km) and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer (25-30+
    C surface dewpoint depressions) indicate the potential for strong
    wind gusts, and severe wind is possible. Storms should continue to
    develop this afternoon and slowly move south/east into the evening.
    A watch is unlikely given the isolated nature of the severe wind
    threat and anticipated lack of organized severe convection.

    ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 07/12/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

    LAT...LON 34928318 35008219 35088070 34837917 34407863 33707933
    33088016 32538112 32868167 33818288 34928318



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