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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1040

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, July 12, 2018 01:59:36
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    ACUS11 KWNS 120159
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120158
    MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-120400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1040
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0858 PM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

    Areas affected...Southeastern North Dakota...portions of
    central/northern Minnesota

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 271...

    Valid 120158Z - 120400Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 271 continues.

    SUMMARY...Storm coverage is beginning to increase within WW 271. A
    tornado threat will exist for the next few hours. Storms are
    expected to grow upscale where the main threats will become large
    hail and damaging wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have begun to form along the cold front from
    Lake of the Woods County, MN to Mahnomen County, MN. Elsewhere along
    the cold front, agitated cumulus has been increasing per 1-minute
    GOES meso-sector visible imagery. While storms have struggled to
    mature thus far, an increase in the low-level jet evident on the
    KDLH VAD profile has enlarged the hodograph through 3 km and
    effective deep-layer shear of 35-40 kts suggests better organization
    is still possible. With effective SRH of 300-400 m2/s2, the
    environment remains favorable for tornado development with any
    discrete storms. The main limiting factors for tornadoes are the
    generally narrow warm sector -- where MLCAPE values are generally
    2500-3000 -- and an expected increase in storm coverage with the
    continued strengthening of the low-level jet. Though the tornado
    threat is more conditional, large hail and severe wind gusts can
    also be expected.

    ..Wendt.. 07/12/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

    LAT...LON 45759600 45759604 45759624 45929720 46399705 47029645
    47819569 48489525 48749485 48909435 48629308 47719305
    47109305 46339304 46159304 45759576 45759586 45759600



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