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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1038

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, July 11, 2018 18:15:35
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    ACUS11 KWNS 111815
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111815
    VAZ000-112045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1038
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0115 PM CDT Wed Jul 11 2018

    Areas affected...Central into eastern Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 111815Z - 112045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered strong storms with isolated, marginal threat for
    damaging wind gusts. WW issuance not currently anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Agitated cumulus have become well defined across much
    of central and eastern Virginia this afternoon. Convective
    initiation has recently occurred and recent CAM guidance suggests
    that the development of additional scattered thunderstorms will be
    likely within the next few hours. Glancing deep-layer ascent
    associated with a weak mid-level shortwave trough, weak confluence
    ahead of a southward sagging cold front, and diurnal heating will
    act as lifting mechanisms for convection across the discussion area.

    Unidirectional effective bulk shear is in place, with speed-driven
    effective shear values of generally less than 30 knots noted.
    Low-level shear is poor, and RAP point forecast soundings indicate
    tall, skinny MLCAPE (up to 1500-2000 J/kg) present owing to poor
    mid-level lapse rates on the order of 5-6 C/km. Still, the
    atmosphere is moist throughout a deep-layer, with precipitable water
    values ranging between 1.7-2.0 inches. Given the deep moisture and
    modest buoyancy in place, some of the stronger storms may support
    isolated wet downbursts with an associated risk of marginally severe
    wind gusts.

    Given the isolated and marginal extent of the severe threat, no WW
    issuance is expected at this time.

    ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/11/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 36607923 36757965 36877985 37257996 37547995 37827975
    38077948 38347917 38497875 38557857 38537825 38467783
    38357744 38117697 37767650 37537624 37397618 37047611
    36717630 36657712 36587775 36607923



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