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ACUS11 KWNS 211841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211841
TXZ000-212115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0280
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Areas affected...North-central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 211841Z - 212115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across parts of
north-central Texas this afternoon. Large hail and damaging wind
gusts will be possible with the strongest of storms. However, the
severe threat should remain isolated and weather watch issuance
appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1008 mb low over
the Low Rolling Plains of west Texas. A warm front extends eastward
from the low across north-central Texas. South of this boundary,
surface dewpoints are generally in the upper 50s and lower 60s F.
This is contributing to a narrow corridor of weak instability from
the Texas Hill Country northward into the Low Rolling Plains where
MLCAPE values are estimated in the 250 to 500 J/kg range according
to objective analysis.

Surface-based convection has initiated to the northwest of Abilene,
TX over the last hour. This convection is located just to the west
of the strongest instability and near a pronounced vorticity max
analyzed by the RAP. The Abilene WSR-88D VWP shows strong deep-layer
shear with 0-6 km shear estimated to be from 50 to 55 kts. In
addition, forecast soundings suggest an area of steep mid-level
lapse rates exists near the instability max. These factors should be
supportive of strong updrafts capable of producing hail. Isolated
large hail could occur with any storm that develops persistent
rotation. An isolated wind damage threat may also develop mainly
after convection matures later this afternoon especially if a short
line segment can organize. Isolated storm coverage and the small
affected area make weather watch issuance unlikely.

..Broyles/Hart.. 04/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON 32329942 31869804 31829722 32269689 32779688 33209734
33319801 33339919 33259969 33099984 32829984 32329942



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ACUS11 KWNS 071949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071949
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-072115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0280
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2019

Areas affected...Far Southeast TX....Northern/Central/Western LA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 42...

Valid 071949Z - 072115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 42
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two
continues within the convective line. Isolated hail is possible with
a few of the warm-sector storms.

DISCUSSION...Well-organized convective line continues to push eastward/northeastward across far southeast TX at 40-45 kt. This
increase in speed has been fostered by gradually increasing low- to
mid-level flow, strong instability, and storm development ahead of
the line (which contributes to some discrete forward-propagation).
Orientation of the line has also recently become a bit more
orthogonal to the 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear vectors.

Expansive cloud cover advecting ahead of the system and warm sector thunderstorms have resulted in some cooling of the surface
temperatures downstream across southwest LA with temperatures now in
the mid 70s. Warmer temperatures (i.e. upper 70s/low 80s) remain in
place across central LA. Favorable low-level moisture coupled with
these temperatures and modest lapse rates supports moderate to
strong instability. Expectation is for the convective line to
continue eastward/northeastward with a continued threat for damaging
wind gusts and an isolated/brief tornado or two within surging
portions of the line. Isolated hail remains possible within the
warm-sector storms.

..Mosier.. 04/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 29019474 32089473 33129205 30099204 29019474



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