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ACUS11 KWNS 110033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110032
NDZ000-MTZ000-110230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1036
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Areas affected...South-central into northeast Montana...western
North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269...

Valid 110032Z - 110230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269
continues.

SUMMARY...A linear segment of severe storms has developed over the
northern portions of WW 269 and currently near Glasgow, MT. These
storms pose the greatest threat for severe wind gusts and isolated
severe hail. A WW is probable by 02Z for areas downstream of this
storm complex. Farther south/southwest, storm coverage has been
minimal and little continued development is expected.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms nearing Glasgow, MT was moving east at
about 40 kts. KGGW radial velocities show 50 to near 70 kts a few
hundred feet off the surface with a recent measured wind gusts of
40-45 kts in and north of Glasgow. Given a 0-6 km shear vector of
around 55 kts aligned with the direction of propagation and
1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE -- RAP analysis estimates appear to be high
per 00Z GGW sounding -- ahead of the line, the expectation is for
severe wind gusts to remain probable over the next few hours.
Furthermore, the low-level jet is expected to increase and provide
at least modest theta-E advection along the international border.
Locations expected to be impacted by these storms include northeast
Montana and northwest North Dakota. A downstream watch is probable
in northwest North Dakota by 02Z.

Farther to the south/southwest, storms have struggled to maintain
organization and intensity farther away from the mid-level ascent
and better deep-layer shear to the north. While some additional
development may occur, the coverage of isolated severe wind gusts
and hail will likely be minimal.

..Wendt.. 07/11/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 45590857 45820884 46420895 47600833 48430792 48860730
48830649 48840565 48850424 48860252 48710168 48510136
48140111 47820111 47580125 47250147 47020283 46910369
46790393 46110636 45690771 45580835 45590857



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