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ACUS11 KWNS 102228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102228
MTZ000-110030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1035
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269...

Valid 102228Z - 110030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 269
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to continue into the early to
mid evening. Wind damage, large hail and a brief tornado will be
possible as the storms move eastward through the central and eastern
part of severe thunderstorm watch 269.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a broken line of strong thunderstorms extending southward from southwestern Saskatchewan
into east-central Montana. This convection is located in an area of
increasing large-scale ascent ahead of a shortwave trough in the
northern Rockies evident on water vapor imagery. The storms are also
located along a cold front with the RAP showing a moderately
unstable airmass ahead of the front across most of eastern Montana
where MLCAPE values are estimated to be in the 2500 to 4000 J/kg
range. In addition, the Glasgow WSR-88D VWP shows strong deep-layer
shear with 0-6 km shear near 60 kt and veering winds with height in
the lowest 3 KM AGL. This is a supercell wind profile and will
support severe storm development this evening. Isolated large hail
and wind damage will be the primary threats although a brief tornado
can not be ruled out as the low-level jet intensifies early this
evening.

..Broyles/Grams.. 07/10/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 47760903 47220919 46430963 46030948 45930880 46130758
46140679 46570636 47670613 48780651 49240779 49430897
49170941 49000942 48170904 47760903



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