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ACUS11 KWNS 101950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101950 COR
MTZ000-102145-
Mesoscale Discussion 1033
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018
Areas affected...central and northeast Montana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 101950Z - 102145Z
CORRECTED FOR LINE TYPE/WFOS ALERTED
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing across the higher terrain of
southwest Montana. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop
farther east and north along a cold front. The environment across
northeast Montana will be supportive of large hail with initial
thunderstorm development with a transition to more of a damaging
wind threat with time. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely by 3PM
MDT.
DISCUSSION...Compact shortwave trough is lifting northeast across
northern Idaho and northwest Montana, with a midlevel jet nosing
into central Montana. At the surface, a weak surface low located
across central Montana and trailing cold front continue to move east
across Montana this afternoon. The environment ahead of the surface
cold front is moderately unstable, with mixed-layer CAPE increasing
into the 1000-2000 J/kg range as temperatures warm into the
mid-to-upper 80s F. Additionally, as the midlevel jet moves atop the
region, deep-layer shear on the order of 50 knots should be
maintained.
Thunderstorms are now developing across the higher terrain across
portions of southwest Montana with additional thunderstorms expected
farther northeast this afternoon as ascent increases a during
maximum heating and a frontal zone moves across the area. Given the
highly sheared, moderately unstable environment in place across
eastern Montana, as thunderstorms develop they will have the
potential to produce large hail and damaging winds. With time,
upscale growth into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) should
result in an increasing damaging wind threat.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed by 21Z.
..Marsh/Thompson.. 07/10/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 45751138 48701085 48820445 45910495 45751138
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