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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1031

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 10, 2018 16:58:05
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 101657
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101657
    MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-101930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1031
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1157 AM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018

    Areas affected...Upstate New York and parts of northern New England

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 101657Z - 101930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe potential gradually increasing over the next few
    hours. Convective trends are being monitored for a potential WW.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed along a cold
    front just north of Upstate New York and Vermont along the Canadian
    side of the U.S border, with new cells recently noted in Essex
    County, New York and Somerset County Maine. The cold front will
    continue to move southeast into New England, with deep-layer ascent
    associated with a mid-level short wave trough continuing to glance
    the region. As such, storms are expected to continue
    developing/intensifying across the area throughout the afternoon as
    the boundary layer continues to moisten and warm.

    While mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain modest (around
    6.5 C/km), effective bulk shear on the order of 35-40 knots suggest
    that any storm that matures may become organized. The weaker lapse
    rates and relatively unidirectional shear suggest that damaging wind
    gusts will likely be the primary threat. The need for a WW remains
    unclear given the isolated nature of storms and convective trends
    will continue to be monitored.

    ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/10/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

    LAT...LON 43467626 43827615 44317590 44707538 44937493 45007405
    45037338 45007255 45007164 45097127 45187110 45347074
    45507046 45687012 45636963 45386910 45096933 44816974
    44607028 44537070 44147172 43937273 43377350 43077413
    42907482 42817567 43467626



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