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ACUS11 KWNS 101131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101131
MNZ000-SDZ000-101200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1029
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 AM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Areas affected...portions of eastern SD and western MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 101131Z - 101200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) is possible
for the next 1-2 hours. The hail risk will likely diminish as
storms move farther into MN.

DISCUSSION...Radar data shows a couple of hail-producing
thunderstorms over eastern SD. A warm-air-advection wind profile
sampled by KABR is resulting in around 50kt effective shear within
the eastern periphery of an airmass characterized as moderately
buoyant (2000-2500 J/kg MUCAPE). Buoyancy lessens to the east, and
it is likely the strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to
move southeast (aided in part by a convectively modulated mid-level
circulation near the ND/SD border), along the buoyancy gradient over southwestern MN this morning. The isolated coverage, magnitude of
the hail threat, and anticipated duration of the stronger activity
will likely preclude a severe thunderstorm watch issuance.

..Smith/Edwards.. 07/10/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 44529639 45369744 45569728 44899581 44649595 44529639



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