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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1028

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, July 10, 2018 03:25:29
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 100325
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 100324
    NDZ000-MTZ000-100500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1028
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1024 PM CDT Mon Jul 09 2018

    Areas affected...Northeast MT...Western ND

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 268...

    Valid 100324Z - 100500Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 268
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Ongoing supercells appear to be consolidating into an MCS
    near the MT/ND border and this should track southeast towards
    central ND. A mix of severe wind and hail is anticipated through at
    least 06Z. An additional WW beyond 06Z expiration may become
    warranted should convective trends dictate greater than an
    isolated/marginal severe threat.

    DISCUSSION...Supercells are ongoing from Williams county ND west
    into Roosevelt county MT. These cells are increasingly interacting
    with one another and it appears that broader-scale consolidation is
    underway. This will likely yield an MCS that tracks southeast along
    the CAPE/instability gradient that exists from western to central
    ND. With low-level southerlies having increased to 35 kt per BIS VWP
    data and MBX VWP data sampling strong deep-layer shear owing to a
    veering wind profile with height, it is plausible that an organized
    MCS will continue through at least the early overnight period. While
    most 00Z CAM guidance suggests activity will weaken overnight given
    the cooler boundary layer east of the Missouri River, the NSSL-ARW
    maintains an organized MCS through 12Z.

    ..Grams.. 07/10/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

    LAT...LON 48760347 48270197 47810124 47140085 46850102 46660147
    46710221 47280340 47850442 48190503 48570525 48790528
    48870498 48760347



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