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ACUS11 KWNS 100022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100022
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-100215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1026
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 PM CDT Mon Jul 09 2018

Areas affected...Southeastern Montana...portions of western South Dakota...northeast Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 100022Z - 100215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will pose a threat for severe wind gusts and
perhaps an isolated instance of severe hail over the next hour or
two. A WW is not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...Storms have formed in northeastern Wyoming and have
shown modest intensification coincident with peak afternoon heating.
While shear in northeastern Wyoming is sufficient for storm
organization -- with 30-35 kts of effective shear -- relatively weak
mid-level lapse rates has limited buoyancy to 1500-2000 J/kg.
Farther to the east near the Black Hills, better moisture and
instability reside across a stationary surface boundary. Given weak
steering flow for these storms, uncertainty exists with regard
whether these storms will be able to progress far enough east to tap
into a more favorable airmass. In the meantime, the greatest threat
from these storms will be severe wind gusts given the steep
low-level lapse rates. An isolated instance of severe hail cannot be
ruled out given the marginally favorable wind profile. With the
expected isolated nature and short duration of the threat, a WW is
not anticipated. If cold pools can congeal, a more organized wind
threat could evolve. Convective trends will continue to be
monitored.

..Wendt/Broyles.. 07/10/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 44450725 45450585 45280337 44630276 43710284 43110330
43040435 43020661 43780721 44450725



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