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ACUS11 KWNS 092358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092357
AZZ000-CAZ000-100130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1025
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CDT Mon Jul 09 2018

Areas affected...Southwest AZ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 092357Z - 100130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to severe storms should continue
progressing west-southwest from the Phoenix metro area towards the
Lower Colorado Valley. 40-65 kt gusts will be common through about
02-03Z. Given the ongoing nature of the hazard and limited
spatiotemporal extent of the downstream threat, a watch is not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A multicell cluster has organized across the Phoenix
metro area south towards the international border. KPHX measured a
gust to 62 kt at 2335Z. This cluster has established a cold pool
with temperatures falling into the 60s, while 100-108 temperatures
persist ahead of the line. Given the presence of 20-25 kt
low/mid-level easterlies, this type of flow regime will remain
favorable for sustenance of a multicell cluster westward along the
Gila Valley towards the Yuma area.

..Grams/Broyles.. 07/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON 33841221 32831227 32231244 31961272 32261396 32501447
33131455 33751448 33931402 33841221



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