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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1023

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 09, 2018 20:52:27
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 092052
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092051
    AZZ000-092315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1023
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0351 PM CDT Mon Jul 09 2018

    Areas affected...Central Arizona

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 092051Z - 092315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts may occur. No WW issuance is
    expected at this time.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have developed in response to strong
    daytime heating beneath 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates and moist
    mid-level monsoonal flow. Steep lapse rates throughout a deep tropospheric-layer and a dry sub-cloud layer beneath 700 mb may
    promote damaging wind gusts.

    Sparse wind gusts may occur with cells in the Yavapai/Mohave county
    vicinity, where stronger bulk effective shear may keep storms more
    discrete. Modest ascent associated with a small westward propagating
    mid-level perturbation may promote more multicellular development
    across eastern portions of the discussion area, where congealing
    cells may also promote damaging wind gusts.

    Given the expected sparse coverage and marginal nature of any
    damaging wind gusts that occur, a WW issuance is not anticipated.

    ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/09/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

    LAT...LON 32221033 32101070 31901105 31711143 31691182 31921250
    32301317 32561350 33021358 33641349 33791344 34171364
    34571382 34821391 35051398 35361384 35571355 35691332
    35731294 35621258 35361214 35171186 34591024 33820983
    32940979 32221033



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