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ACUS11 KWNS 091042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091041
SDZ000-091145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1022
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 AM CDT Mon Jul 09 2018

Areas affected...Portions of southwest South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 091041Z - 091145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail remains possible over the next hour or
so. A watch is not anticipated, though.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of cells has exhibited enough upscale
organization to pose a localized severe-hail threat near Rapid City,
SD early this morning. Linear ascent along a southeastward-moving
cold pool and gradual decoupling from stronger westerlies to the
north should maintain a more linear/multicellular evolution as the
cluster continues south/southeast. This unfavorable mode evolution
should temper hail growth some. Still, steep mid-level lapse rates
and adequate effective shear may briefly enhance hail growth within
this cluster over the next hour or so. This severe threat is
expected to be relatively short-lived, though, as cells will push
farther into a low-level air mass characterized by considerable subsidence/inhibition.

..Picca/Edwards.. 07/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...

LAT...LON 43200323 43520339 44090347 44270318 44340283 44030239
43340208 43080240 43060291 43200323



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