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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1021

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 09, 2018 00:58:53
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 090058
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090058
    MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-090300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1021
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0758 PM CDT Sun Jul 08 2018

    Areas affected...Southeast North Dakota...Northeast South
    Dakota...portions of central Minnesota...far northwest Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267...

    Valid 090058Z - 090300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for isolated severe wind and hail will persist
    for the next few hours. The areas of greatest risk will be in
    southeast North Dakota, northeast South Dakota, and parts of
    west-central Minnesota, with diminishing risk in eastern portions of
    WW 267.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, 1 km radar mosaic imagery has shown
    that storms within WW 267 have congealed and become increasingly
    linear in a west-to-east oriented band. The area of greatest threat
    for severe wind and hail is in far southeast North Dakota and
    northeast South Dakota. The 00Z ABR sounding shows greater than 2500
    J/kg MLCAPE with a long hodograph through 6 km. 0-3 km hodograph
    curvature is moderate -- with around 250 m2/s2 effective SRH -- but
    the linear storm mode should temper the tornado threat. Farther to
    the east/southeast, substantial convective inhibition is present per
    the 00Z MPX sounding. Even with 35-40 kts of effective 0-6 km shear,
    the linear storm mode should limit severe hail and severe wind to
    isolated coverage. Should any severe threat persist, local
    extensions may be needed.

    ..Wendt.. 07/09/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

    LAT...LON 46059018 45059382 44719653 44749822 45219870 45949897
    46729788 47159572 47729256 47969061 48008948 47998941
    47968941 47968941 47968941 47958943 46059018



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