This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1531073813-38885-8482
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 081816
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081816
MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-082045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1019
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CDT Sun Jul 08 2018

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern North Dakota and adjacent
portions of South Dakota into northwest Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 081816Z - 082045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorm development across parts of central
North Dakota is expected to persist, with an eventual more rapid intensification possible while spreading into Minnesota by the 3-5
PM CDT time frame. This may be followed by additional thunderstorm
development southwestward across southeastern North Dakota. Timing
remains a bit uncertain, but it seems probable that a severe weather
watch will be needed by late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Some increase in convective development appears
underway across portions of central North Dakota (roughly to the
north of a Bismarck/Jamestown line). This is currently within a
narrow band, likely associated with a zone of enhanced lower/mid
tropospheric warm advection, near the nose of a plume of very warm
elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Great Basin. Models
suggest that this forcing will gradually shift eastward through
areas near/east of Bemidji MN between now and 20-22Z, before the
elevated mixed-layer plume becomes suppressed southward in the wake
of stronger mid-level height falls spreading into northwestern
Ontario.

The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that inhibition for moist
pre-frontal boundary layer air is beginning to diminish along this
corridor. As this weakens further with continuing insolation, there
appears potential for this initially elevated convection to become
rooted in the boundary layer. As this occurs, coincident with
boundary layer parcels becoming characterized by CAPE in excess of
2500-3000 J/k, a more rapid intensification likely will ensue.
Beneath 40-50 kt westerly 500 mb flow, this may include the
evolution of supercell structures posing a risk for severe hail and
perhaps an isolated tornado, before the risk for strong surface
gusts becomes more prominent.

Thereafter, in the wake of this initial activity, additional
thunderstorm development may occur west/southwestward along the
pre-frontal surface trough across southeastern North Dakota into
adjacent portions of South Dakota by 22Z.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 07/08/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 48039678 48009442 47149400 46139711 45569843 45619955
46509999 47199915 48039678



------------=_1531073813-38885-8482
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1531073813-38885-8482--

--- SBBSecho 3.05-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online - capitolcityonline.net (1:2320/105)