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ACUS11 KWNS 081423
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081423
MIZ000-MNZ000-081600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1018
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0923 AM CDT Sun Jul 08 2018

Areas affected...Minnesota Arrowhead...Lake Superior vicinity

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 266...

Valid 081423Z - 081600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 266
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms could still pose a risk for strong wind
gusts across the Minnesota Arrowhead vicinity through around 11 AM
CDT. Thereafter, severe weather potential is expected to diminish
and the need for an additional watch is not anticipated, at least in
the near term.

DISCUSSION...Latest MRMS CAPPI data suggest at least some recent
weakening of the small cluster of thunderstorms now spreading across
northern St. Louis County MN. This activity likely has been
supported by a convectively generated or enhanced mid-level
perturbation, which will continue to migrate east northeast of the Minnesota/Ontario border area, around the crest of broad mid/upper
ridging. While low/mid-level warm advection may contribute to the
maintenance of this activity into midday, higher moisture content
(and associated instability), above a cool/stable low-level
environment remaining entrenched across much of the Great Lakes
region, appears confined to a narrow corridor across northern Lake
Superior and adjacent Ontario. Additional convective development
back to the west, across parts of northeastern Minnesota/the
Minnesota Arrowhead may not be entirely out of the question through
midday. However, severe weather potential, in general, seems likely
to diminish once the St. Louis County cluster develops north/east of
the Minnesota Arrowhead by around 16Z.

..Kerr.. 07/08/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...

LAT...LON 48599258 48819099 49338915 49378743 48618607 47808753
47588889 47339149 47259256 47609336 48599258



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