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ACUS11 KWNS 081030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081030
MNZ000-NDZ000-081200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1017
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 AM CDT Sun Jul 08 2018

Areas affected...Portions of northern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 265...

Valid 081030Z - 081200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 265
continues.

SUMMARY...A few severe storms, primarily capable of severe gusts,
remain possible over northern Minnesota early this morning. Some of
these could develop east of ongoing Watch 265, but may be limited
enough in spatial extent to preclude downstream watch issuance. If
trends suggest otherwise, though, a watch could be issued for parts
of the Duluth, MN CWA later this morning.

DISCUSSION...A forward-propagating cluster of severe cells is
continuing east/northeast around 40-45 kt early this morning. This
cluster has been associated with a string of severe-wind reports
over North Dakota, and this trend may persist through sunrise,
especially given enhanced propagation from new warm-advection
development to the east. The 00Z INL sounding, modified for regional
surface observations, confirms considerable convective inhibition
exists ahead of the cluster, but strong forced ascent along the cold
pool and steep mid-level lapse rates continue to overcome this
impediment.

At its current trajectory/speed, these cells should reach the
eastern edge of Watch 265 around 7-730am CDT. Additionally,
downstream warm-advection cells may depart the watch even sooner.
However, these cells appear to be weaker/more elevated, possibly due
to a lack of stronger forced ascent (unlike the upstream cluster).
Therefore, new watch issuance may not need to be considered until
the primary cluster approaches the edge of the watch. Even then, it
may only glance northwest portions of the DLH CWA (e.g., Koochiching
Co). Such a limited spatial extent outside of the ongoing watch may
not necessitate new watch issuance.

..Picca.. 07/08/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON 48479709 48899718 49009676 49179538 49329484 48799374
48559296 47849285 47449313 47309449 47389677 47969706
48479709



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