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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0233

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, April 10, 2018 14:14:21
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    ACUS11 KWNS 101414
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101413
    FLZ000-101615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0233
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0913 AM CDT Tue Apr 10 2018

    Areas affected...Central FL Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 101413Z - 101615Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and hail are possible for the
    next hour or two across portions of the central FL Peninsula.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows a convective line moving in
    the west-central portions of the FL Peninsula just north of Tampa
    Bay. Several well-developed cells (i.e. 30dBz above 30kft) exist
    within this line but the overall character has diminished slightly
    over the past hour as the line becomes more outflow dominant.
    Southwesterly low-level flow ahead of this line will result in
    continued convection along and behind the outflow, particularly
    across western portions of the line. The eastern portion is
    currently a little more organized and the cell moving through Pasco
    and Hernando counties still appears to keeping up with its outflow.
    Some damaging wind gusts are possible while this cell remains
    situated on its outflow. Additionally, weak warm air advection
    storms ahead of this more organized portion of the convective line
    could act to briefly enhance updraft strength as cell mergers occur.
    Isolated damaging wind gusts and hail are possible as a result of
    these brief updraft enhancements.

    Overall expectation is for the line to gradually weaken as it moves
    into the central peninsula. Re-organization or new development off
    the outflow is possible this afternoon once it moves far enough
    across the peninsula to interact with the east coast sea breeze.

    ..Mosier/Thompson.. 04/10/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

    LAT...LON 27938350 28418291 28678237 28768177 28638141 28538139
    28448129 27988134 27688206 27498317 27938350



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, March 24, 2019 21:43:25
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    ACUS11 KWNS 242043
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242042
    ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-242215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0233
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0342 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2019

    Areas affected...Northeastern Missouri into west-central Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 242042Z - 242215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms have recently increased near/north of Columbia over
    the past half hour. Another cell persists into Hancock County
    Illinois. These storms may briefly approach severe limits, although
    a WW issuance is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Recent convective development has occurred from near
    Columbia, Missouri to just west of Quincy, Illinois over the past
    half hour. Another persistent storm has maintained itself into
    portions of Hancock County, Illinois as well. These storms are in a
    relatively stable low-level environment compared to areas south,
    with minimal surface-based CAPE and any instability likely tied to
    cold mid-level temperatures (-22 to -24 C at 500 mb). Continued
    ascent tied to the approach of the mid-level wave centered just
    northwest of the region and cool temperatures aloft should support a
    risk of hail in the strongest cores, with only isolated instances of
    1" stones. A strong wind gust may also occur with the strongest
    activity. The overall magnitude of the severe risk in this area
    will likely preclude a WW issuance.

    ..Cook.. 03/24/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

    LAT...LON 39169241 39539240 39989214 40169204 40469150 40549093
    40349042 39889018 39369023 38979071 38909157 38889222
    39169241



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