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ACUS11 KWNS 271656
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271656
FLZ000-271930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0537
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Areas affected...Part of central and western Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 271656Z - 271930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A chance of rotating storms including the threat of a
brief tornado may exist over the next few hours across west-central
to central Florida.

DISCUSSION...Current objective analysis as well as the TBW VAD shows
0-1 SRH of 200-250 m2/s2 centered near Tampa as a line of storms
forms to the south. Visible imagery also shows areas of heating, and
further development is also possible. These storms may acquire
rotation as they become more established and shift north into the
greater low-level shear zone. With time, this zone of shear will
also depart the area. Therefore, the best chance of a brief tornado
appears to be over the next few hours. However, the threat is
unlikely to be great enough for a watch.

..Jewell/Hart.. 05/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 27138255 27878292 28348279 28858273 29098281 29138241
29048208 28988197 28578156 27728116 27128100 26598112
26488143 26678197 26888236 27138255



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ACUS11 KWNS 050049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050048
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-050215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0537
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Sat May 04 2019

Areas affected...far eastern New Mexico through western Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 050048Z - 050215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for isolated large hail, locally strong wind gusts
and a brief tornado will persist through around 02Z, followed by a
diminishing trend. The coverage and duration of threat is expected
to remain too sparse and limited in duration for a WW.

DISCUSSION...Early this evening isolated storms including a few
supercells persist from the Oklahoma Panhandle through west TX into
far southeast NM. The 00Z RAOBs from Amarillo and Midland show
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient
(30-40 kt) effective bulk shear. This environment will continue to
support some severe threat through about 02Z. However, an inversion
at the base of the elevated-mixed layer (around 750mb) evident on
both the Amarillo and Midland soundings suggests convective
inhibition will increase substantially as the boundary layer begins
to stabilize, and this should contribute to a gradual weakening by
mid evening.

..Dial/Grams.. 05/05/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36560095 35060165 32370252 32650333 35150323 36690218
36560095



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