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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0536

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, May 27, 2018 06:30:25
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 270630
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270629
    NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-270900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0536
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0129 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

    Areas affected...Part of far eastern MT and southwest ND

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 122...

    Valid 270629Z - 270900Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 122
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for severe wind gusts and hail persists through
    08-09Z across far eastern Montana and across west-central into
    southwest North Dakota. WW 122 may need to be extended in time
    beyond its current 07Z expiration.

    DISCUSSION...At 06Z, mosaic radar imagery showed a band of storms,
    with a history of producing severe wind gusts of 56 kt and 57 kt,
    extended from western McKenzie County, ND to Dawson County, MT.
    Additional storms were forming along the leading edge of the primary
    band in southern Dawson County within a regime of low-level warm
    advection. Objective analysis at 05Z indicated a minimum in
    mixed-layer inhibition and residual north-south corridor of
    surface-3-km lapse rates of 6 C/km astride of the MT/ND border.
    These thermodynamics likely allowed stronger winds (57 kt) to reach
    the surface as reported at KSDY at 0456Z, and may continue to
    support a severe-weather threat in the short term into far western
    ND. Current movement of the band of storms is at 20-25 kt.
    Although this slow forward speed should limit a severe gust threat,
    apparent cold-pool development could result in some potential
    increase in forward motion. However, stronger surface-based
    inhibition with eastward extent across western ND suggests an
    eventual reduction in threat for storms producing severe wind gusts.

    Effective bulk shear remains strong and combined with moderate
    elevated instability should allow for a few storms to become capable
    of producing hail locally exceeding severe caliber into the
    overnight.

    ..Peters.. 05/27/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 46740553 47960349 48120287 47440165 47000107 46650092
    46010113 45940200 45920319 45920395 46130481 46740553



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 04, 2019 21:51:53
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    ACUS11 KWNS 042151
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042151
    NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-042315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0536
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0451 PM CDT Sat May 04 2019

    Areas affected...Northern South Carolina...central North
    Carolina...and southern Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 042151Z - 042315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Numerous storms are expected to continue through the
    evening with a threat for isolated large hail and damaging winds. No
    severe thunderstorm watch is expected.

    DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms have developed along and ahead
    of a weak surface low currently in central South Carolina. Storm
    organization varies widely across the Carolinas with mostly pulse
    convection in central and eastern South Carolina where deep layer
    shear is only 15 to 20 knots per CAE VWP. However, deep layer shear
    is much more favorable in western South Carolina and North Carolina
    where the GSP VWP shows deep layer shear around 35 to 40 knots.
    Where deep-layer shear is more favorable, buoyancy is much more
    limited as surface temperatures are in the upper 60s to low 70s.
    There is a narrow corridor where better deep layer shear and
    instability overlap. This corridor is where storms have been able to
    remain more organized with occasional reports of severe hail or
    wind. Expect this threat to continue for several more hours this
    evening. However, due to the narrow area with favorable severe
    weather parameters and the limited residency of any individual storm
    within this favorable area, a severe thunderstorm watch is not
    anticipated.

    ..Bentley/Grams.. 05/04/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...
    FFC...

    LAT...LON 35348149 35798091 36648039 37298011 37267883 36837773
    36027773 34627821 33977870 33667910 33527974 33478048
    33788221 33958273 34478273 35348149



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