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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0534

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, May 27, 2018 03:07:22
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    ACUS11 KWNS 270307
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 270306
    FLZ000-270530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0534
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1006 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

    Areas affected...South Florida/Florida Keys

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 270306Z - 270530Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for a tornado or two should increase late
    this evening into the overnight across the Florida Keys and south
    Florida.

    DISCUSSION...Subtropical Storm Alberto is expected to continue a
    general northward progression over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
    through early Sunday -- reference NHC forecasts for more details.
    Evening WSR-88D VWP data from Miami and Key West have reflected a
    gradual increase in southeasterly wind speeds in the lower
    troposphere with a resultant increase in 1-2 km SRH generally on the
    order of 150 m2/s2 as of 03Z. An additional increase in low-level
    winds/SRH (perhaps a doubling of SRH) will continue to occur through
    late evening and overnight as increasingly enlarged low-level
    hodographs develop northward across south Florida. Nocturnal
    influences on the boundary layer may somewhat limit upward parcel accelerations, although temperatures have even warmed a degree or
    two F at a few Keys/south Florida locations since sunset.
    Regardless, the increasingly strong low-level shear/SRH at least
    conditionally supports the possibility of low-topped supercells with
    some tornado risk. Lightning/convective trends will be closely
    monitored for any need of a Tornado Watch.

    ..Guyer/Grams.. 05/27/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...TBW...

    LAT...LON 26368206 26298063 26317985 25408000 24488076 24248132
    24538242 25478195 26368206



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 04, 2019 20:29:20
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 042029
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042028
    FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-042200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0534
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0328 PM CDT Sat May 04 2019

    Areas affected...southern Alabama...far southwest Georgia...and
    western and central parts of the Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 130...

    Valid 042028Z - 042200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 130
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Limited/local severe risk continues in/near WW 190.

    DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of storms continues moving
    eastward across WW 190 -- i.e. southern Alabama and western Parts of
    the Florida Panhandle, ahead of the still-prominent MCV moving
    northeast across east-central Mississippi. Convection appears to be
    moving through the axis of greatest CAPE at this time, with slightly
    lesser instability indicated downstream of the ongoing storms.
    Given that severe weather has been minimal over the last couple of
    hours, and little indication that an increase in risk will occur,
    the need for a downstream watch remains questionable. Still,
    potential for occasional/local wind gusts capable of producing minor
    damage, marginal hail, or a brief tornado remains evident.

    ..Goss.. 05/04/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 30138721 32288794 32908640 33038531 32178468 30728468
    29728473 29478531 30238627 30138721



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