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ACUS11 KWNS 270313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270313
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-270515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0535
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Areas affected...northeast Montana and western North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 122...

Valid 270313Z - 270515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 122
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development continues across northeast
Montana. Coverage should continue to increase in the next couple of
hours before a thunderstorm cluster moves east into North Dakota.
Hail and strong, gusty thunderstorm outflow will continue to be
possible.

DISCUSSION...More robust thunderstorm development, as evidenced by
recent 1.75-2.00 inch hail reports, has occurred within the last
hour across McCone, Dawson, and Richland counties. These
thunderstorms, along with those to the northwest, will continue to
mature over the next couple of hours. The resulting congealing
thunderstorm outflows should help develop a mesoscale convective
system (MCS) that will move east during the evening and early
overnight.

Deep-layer shear of 30 knots should slowly increase through the
evening as a mid-level jet streak approaches the area. Most-unstable
CAPE values at or above 2000 J/kg are found across eastern Montana
but is less farther east across western North Dakota. However, a
strengthening southwesterly low-level jet should allow enough
low-level moisture advection for a slight increase in instability
across North Dakota ahead of the developing MCS. The result will be
an environment conducive for the maintenance of the eventual MCS as
it moves east into North Dakota.

Large hail and strong, gusty thunderstorm outflows will be possible
in the next couple of hours, with a transition to more of a wind
threat thereafter.

..Marsh.. 05/27/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 46390673 46950758 48200750 48820654 48500451 47560210
46300162 45290243 45450363 45900516 46390673



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ACUS11 KWNS 042032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042031
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-042230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0535
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Sat May 04 2019

Areas affected...Eastern NM...Southeast CO...Southwest KS...OK/TX
Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 042031Z - 042230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later
this afternoon into the early evening. While the coverage of severe
storms remains uncertain, watch issuance is possible for some
portion of the area by 21-23Z.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast CO at 2030Z,
with other convection developing across the higher terrain across
NM. A gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected with
time through the rest of the afternoon, potentially aided somewhat
by a weak midlevel wave emerging from the High Plains. Steep
midlevel lapse rates and sufficient low-level moisture should allow
MLCAPE to increase into the 1000-1500 J/kg range by late afternoon,
with effective shear of 35-45 kt supportive of organized structures,
including a few supercells.

The greatest short-term risk (prior to 21Z) should be with the
ongoing convection across southeast CO/southwest KS, though the
environment is not as favorable that far north. Further south, CAM
solutions generally suggest that initial convection along the high
terrain may weaken as it moves east, but additional initiation
(within a better environment) is possible further east after 22Z,
within a weakly confluent regime where boundary-layer moisture is
more favorable. The eventual coverage of severe storms across this
area remains uncertain, but due to the potential for at least widely
scattered supercells, watch issuance is possible within the 21-23Z
timeframe.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/04/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 32890513 33970519 35810478 37480309 38340223 38450134
37150109 36160133 33640266 32940323 32640403 32540479
32890513



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