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ACUS11 KWNS 202326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202326
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-210030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0479
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Areas affected...Western Kentucky...western Tennessee...eastern
Arkansas...and northern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 110...

Valid 202326Z - 210030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 110
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind threat continues across
remaining portions of WW 110, although much of the region has
stabilized recently due to convective overturning. Portions of WW
110 may be cancelled before the 01Z expiration time.

DISCUSSION...Storms continue to propagate slowly/erratically in and
near the remaining valid portions of WW 110 currently. These storms
are in a weakly sheared environment, with widespread convective
overturning and expanding rain-cooled air/outflow limiting the
magnitude of surface-based instability needed to maintain a robust
severe threat. Storms propagating through the warm, moderately
unstable pre-convective airmass (in eastern Arkansas and near Middle
Tennessee) may continue to pose a threat for isolated damaging wind
gusts in the short term, although ongoing trends suggest that the
overall severe threat will continue to wane through 01Z. Some
portions of WW 110 may be cancelled early as a result.

..Cook.. 05/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 36129127 36169085 36289008 36498937 36948847 37438791
37858766 37918731 37748715 37058733 36088769 35388799
34438825 33998832 33738853 33698929 33809036 33999111
34119139 34579138 35409127 36129127



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ACUS11 KWNS 301740
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301739
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-301945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0479
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Areas affected...eastern Missouri into western Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 301739Z - 301945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to develop over the next few
hours, with a tornado, large hail, or wind risk. A watch may be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Storms along an outflow boundary continue to move east
across western IL into eastern MO. Surface analysis shows a warm
front currently extending eastward from this line across the St.
Louis vicinity and into southwest IN.

Strong heating persists across the region, including north of the
warm front where winds are backed. Meanwhile, dewpoints are rising
into the upper 60s F from the south, resulting in rapid
destabilization.

Area VWPs show ample shear to support supercells, including a threat
for very large hail and a few tornadoes. This could materialize out
of storms along the advancing outflow, and/or with new development
eastward along the warm front. The threat may extend as far east as
southwest IN.

..Jewell.. 04/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 39089131 39249105 39568997 39608934 39568821 39408761
39108746 38758744 38468744 38148775 38048870 38138974
38189067 38159120 38259159 38419166 38679153 39089131



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