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ACUS11 KWNS 201924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201924
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-202200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0475
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Areas affected...Much of southwest Missouri into extreme northeast
OK and southeast KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 201924Z - 202200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may strengthen later this afternoon northeast
Oklahoma into southwest Missouri, with damaging wind the main threat
should storms become organized.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a remnant MCV moving
across eastern OK, just behind an old outflow boundary that is now
lifting slowly northward as a warm front. Convection is currently
increasing across the area, both due to warm advection and
destabilization from heating. Instability is currently weak but is
expected to increase. Area VWPs indicate a core of enhanced midlevel
flow, which may support some storm organization should substantial
storms form. However, instability is not particularly strong at this
time.

..Jewell/Weiss.. 05/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON 36709508 37049511 37509500 38359464 38809392 38849326
38539277 38099264 37249301 36639348 36469423 36519468
36709508



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ACUS11 KWNS 292348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292347
TXZ000-NMZ000-300145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0475
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2019

Areas affected...West TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 292347Z - 300145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of
west TX this evening. Hail and gusty winds can be expected.

DISCUSSION...Strongest boundary-layer heating has been confined to
the High Plains/Trans Pecos region of west TX into southern NM where surface-3km lapse rates are in excess of 9 C/km. This has likely
contributed to recent convective development over Winkler County
where a supercell is slowly maturing. This storm has evolved along a
boundary and should begin to propagate northeast along a wind shift
draped from Winkler-Andrews-Martin Counties. Large hail likely
accompanies this storm and that is the main threat this evening.
Latest CAMs support this scenario and a watch is being considered
for a small part of west TX.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 04/29/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...

LAT...LON 31890334 32410237 32470146 31980130 31730205 31520316
31890334



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