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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0473

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, May 20, 2018 16:43:47
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 201643
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201643
    KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-201915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0473
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1143 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

    Areas affected...from northeast Arkansas into the lower Ohio Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 201643Z - 201915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected along an outflow boundary
    from northeast Arkansas into the lower Ohio Valley, with damaging
    winds most likely, along with sporadic hail.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows an outflow boundary
    progressing eastward across southeast MO and into southern IL, while
    trailing southwest across northern AR. Strong heating is rapidly
    destabilizing the air mass, with dewpoints near 70 F and MLCAPE in
    excess of 3000 J/kg. CU is beginning to increase along the boundary,
    as well as farther south into TN and MS. While the boundary will
    provide the main focus for development, isolated activity may
    develop across the very unstable and warming air mass to the south.
    Weak winds will favor pulse or multicell convection capable of
    localized wind damage, with a few of the stronger cores containing
    hail as well.

    ..Jewell/Weiss.. 05/20/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

    LAT...LON 35599188 36059129 36599071 37069027 37748969 37668857
    37318823 36168822 35268847 34688882 34208955 34139032
    34249105 34769172 35139194 35599188



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