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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0472

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, May 20, 2018 06:12:17
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 200612
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 200611
    ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-200815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0472
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0111 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

    Areas affected...the southeast Oklahoma/far north Texas vicinity

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 200611Z - 200815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms will continue moving east/northeast across the
    southeast quarter of Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas over the next
    few hours. Although not currently expected at this time, WW could
    become necessary should additional organization occur on the
    mesoscale.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a weakly organizing MCS over
    central and south central Oklahoma and into adjacent far north Texas
    at this time. Storms remain generally sub-severe, though minor wind
    damage has been reported recently near the northern fringe of the
    evolving band of storms over central Oklahoma.

    With a southerly/south-southwesterly low-level jet nosing into the
    Red River area, storms will likely be sustained for the next several
    hours. While most convection westward across north Texas into the
    Texas South Plains will remain elevated/anafrontal with respect to
    existing convective outflow, and thus mainly only a marginal hail
    risk, risk for damaging winds could increase into the southeast
    Oklahoma vicinity. Here, favorable downstream instability exists,
    and if the weak mesoscale rotation over central Oklahoma can
    continue to evolve into an MCV, allowing some potential for an
    eastward surge of bowing convection into southeast Oklahoma, the
    need for a WW could increase. Otherwise, with isolated/marginally
    severe hail the primary risk, WW at this time is not required.

    ..Goss/Guyer.. 05/20/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35199743 35499717 35839622 35819479 35479409 34459402
    33889500 33719616 33399755 33679866 34109865 34689779
    35199743



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