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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0401

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, May 13, 2018 22:19:49
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    ACUS11 KWNS 132219
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132219
    COZ000-140045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0401
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0519 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

    Areas affected...Northeast CO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 132219Z - 140045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are possible into
    this evening, with a primary threat of hail and perhaps a brief
    tornado.

    DISCUSSION...At 2215Z, a potentially thunderstorm is ongoing across
    eastern Arapahoe County. This storm developed along a nearly
    stationary surface front and will pose a threat of hail and perhaps
    a brief tornado in the short term, before it likely weakens as it
    moves slowly northeast into a more stable airmass north of the
    boundary.

    While large-scale ascent is likely to remain generally neutral with
    the primary upper trough well to the west, persistent moist upslope
    flow along and north of the surface boundary and steep midlevel
    lapse rates will likely continue to support at least isolated strong/potentially severe storms into this evening across northeast
    CO. MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and effective shear of 35-45 kt will
    continue to support the potential for at least weakly rotating
    cells. The strongest storms will be capable of hail, with a brief
    tornado remaining possible with any cells interacting with the
    surface boundary across the southern portions of the MCD area. Watch
    issuance is considered unlikely, due to the isolated and relatively
    marginal nature of the threat.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/13/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 39080476 39910518 40780509 40960468 40960400 40690362
    40230285 39620305 39440325 39130432 39080476



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, April 19, 2019 16:08:55
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 191608
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191608
    MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-191815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0401
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1108 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

    Areas affected...Middle Atlantic

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 191608Z - 191815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe threat is expected to gradually increase across the
    Middle Atlantic region into the mid-afternoon hours.

    DISCUSSION...LLJ is gradually increasing across the Middle Atlantic
    region in response to strong upstream short-wave trough. Scattered
    convection has been noted along the nose of this jet as it
    translates into VA. Several long-lived rotating updrafts, with and
    without lightning, are evolving within this warm advection zone.
    Current thinking is supercell threat will gradually increase across
    central VA as surface dew points rise into the mid 60s. This
    activity will spread toward MD as the afternoon progresses. Tornado
    threat will be higher with these pre-squall line supercells, while
    wind damage should be more common with a forced squall line later
    this afternoon.

    ..Darrow/Thompson.. 04/19/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 38137943 39567825 39337654 37177799 38137943



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