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ACUS11 KWNS 132041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132041
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-132245-
Mesoscale Discussion 0399
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018
Areas affected...Part of northwest TX and eastern TX Panhandle into
western OK and adjacent southern KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 132041Z - 132245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 5-6 PM CDT across
the eastern Texas Panhandle and to the north-northeast into
northwest Oklahoma and adjacent southern Kansas. Additional storms
may develop southward into west Texas. Isolated large hail and
damaging winds will be the primary severe risks.
DISCUSSION...Trends in early-mid afternoon surface observations and
streamline analyses showed a dryline had advanced east into the
eastern TX Panhandle. This boundary intersected a surface front in north-central and northeast TX Panhandle, with the front extending
northeast through south-central KS, and west then northwest through
the northwest TX Panhandle to southeast CO. Mosaic radar imagery
and visible satellite imagery indicated a sustained updraft in
Roberts County TX, near the intersection of the dry line and front,
where convergence is likely maximized. Additional storm development
is expected along the front into far northwest OK and adjacent
southern KS, while some storm formation will be possible southward
in vicinity of the dryline through west TX. Operational HRRR
continues to suggest this scenario for a broken band of storms to
form by 5-6 PM in the aforementioned areas.
Objective analyses indicated strong surface heating has eroded the
inhibition along and east of the dryline supporting storm
development, as observed in Roberts County. Effective bulk shear
across the northern TX Panhandle area may be the strongest,
supporting some supercell development, while elsewhere weaker shear
should result in multicells. Very steep lapse rates suggest hail
and strong/damaging winds will be the primary severe risk. A weak
midlevel impulse glancing this region as it tracks northeast may aid
in greater storm coverage.
..Peters/Grams.. 05/13/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 33790111 35700085 37249990 38019861 37829816 37429809
36209856 34919927 33779978 33790111
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