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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0398

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, May 13, 2018 17:56:47
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    ACUS11 KWNS 131756
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131756
    MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-132000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0398
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1256 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

    Areas affected...portions of southeast OH...northern WV including Panhandle...western MD...southwest PA...northwest VA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 131756Z - 132000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop
    this afternoon and move southeast, with a risk for large hail and
    damaging winds. A tornado or two will also be possible. A Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch may be needed prior to 20Z/4 pm EDT.

    DISCUSSION...Mesoanalysis at 17Z placed a nearly stationary front
    through central portions of OH and extending east/southeast into far
    northern VA. Strong diabatic heating of a moist boundary layer
    (lower/mid 60s surface dew points) combined with relatively steep
    mid-level lapse rates will result in pockets of moderate
    surface-based instability by mid afternoon. Latest visible imagery
    shows deepening cumulus clouds near/south of the front, and
    continued heating combined with weak frontal convergence should
    contribute to isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon.
    Veering flow in the lowest 1-2 KM becomes largely unidirectional
    within the bulk of the cloud-bearing layer, with deep-layer shear
    ranging between 35-45 kts.

    Initial thunderstorm development may pose a risk for large hail and
    damaging winds. Slightly more favorable low-level shear near the
    front would suggest at least some risk for a tornado, especially
    within the first few hours of initiation. With time, a couple of
    small clusters of storms may move southeast with a risk for severe
    hail/wind.

    The area is being monitored for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, which
    may be needed prior to 20Z.

    ..Bunting/Grams.. 05/13/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

    LAT...LON 39938122 40067975 39787870 39167747 38697738 38447790
    38697888 38867982 39058052 39638159 39938122



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, April 19, 2019 13:09:23
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 191309
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191309
    GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-191515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0398
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0809 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

    Areas affected...Georgia and northern Florida/eastern parts of the
    Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 86...

    Valid 191309Z - 191515Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 86 continues.

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe/tornado risk continues, and will shift
    gradually east/northeast with time. New WW may eventually be
    needed.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a subtle uptick in convective
    intensity within the band of storms extending from eastern
    Tennessee/western Virginia/western North Carolina south to eastern
    parts of the Florida Panhandle. While the strongest storms remain
    within Tornado Watch 86, continued gradual
    moistening/destabilization ahead of the convection this morning will
    permit risk to spread out of the watch into eastern and
    Georgia/northern Florida. Given strong background shear --
    supportive of organized/rotating storms, risk for damaging winds and
    a few tornadoes will persist. As such, a new WW will likely be
    required as storms begin to exit WW 86.

    ..Goss.. 04/19/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

    LAT...LON 29528433 29908463 32208503 33218451 34158363 33848269
    31788241 29238241 29528433



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