• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0763

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 17, 2018 04:44:57
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    ACUS11 KWNS 170444
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170444
    MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-170645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0763
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1144 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018

    Areas affected...far southeast North Dakota...a large portion of Minnesota...and into northwest Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182...

    Valid 170444Z - 170645Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe risk continues across the WW area.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar mosaic loop shows widespread storms in a
    west-to-east band extending from southeast North Dakota eastward to
    the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, in a zone of low-level warm
    advection associated with a 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet.

    Storms remain largely sub-severe, through a few cells occasionally
    indicate radar signatures indicative of marginally severe hail. In
    addition, a near-severe (46 kt) gust was recently reported from
    Alexandria, MN -- associated with a weakly bowing cluster of storms
    now crossing the Todd/Morrison County MN vicinity. Some potential
    exists -- given the southwesterly jet and abundant, slightly
    elevated CAPE over southern Minnesota -- that some
    east-southeastward propagation of this bowing cluster of storms
    could occur. In that scenario, potential for locally gusty/damaging
    winds could increase a bit. Otherwise, marginally severe hail and a
    few stronger gusts can be expected over the next couple of hours
    with the strongest storm cores.

    ..Goss.. 06/17/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...ABR...

    LAT...LON 45269606 45989723 46519714 47149612 48429286 48239029
    45139009 45099554 45269606



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