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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0696

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 10, 2018 19:23:28
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    ACUS11 KWNS 101923
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101923
    VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-102130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0696
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0223 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

    Areas affected...Most of VA...Central NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 101923Z - 102130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Occasional damaging wind gusts and isolated hail are
    possible as thunderstorm coverage increases over the next several
    hours. Isolated and marginal nature of the severe threat will
    preclude the need for a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed across the central
    Appalachians over the past 2 hours as a result of modest surface
    convergence and augmented lift along the higher terrain. Large-scale
    forcing for ascent is nebulous but the downstream airmass is warm,
    moist, and unstable, suggesting the probability of continued development/discrete propagation into much of VA and central NC.

    The airmass is weakly sheared with limited storm organization
    anticipated. Even so, moist airmass is supportive of wet downbursts
    within the strongest storms. Isolated hail is also possible,
    primarily as a result of storm mergers and consequential brief
    updraft intensification. Isolated and marginal nature of the severe
    threat will preclude the need for a watch.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 06/10/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

    LAT...LON 38377868 38787807 38837745 38487698 37767724 37417748
    37147762 36887776 36607769 36417761 35987798 34997975
    35378204 36788105 38377868



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