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ACUS11 KWNS 101916
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101915
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-102115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0695
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

Areas affected...Portions of northeastern WY...far southeastern
MT...and western/central ND/SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 101915Z - 102115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of
tornadoes is increasing this afternoon. One or more watches will be
issued by 4 PM CDT to address this threat.

DISCUSSION...19Z surface analysis and recent visible satellite
imagery place a cold front across far western ND/northwestern SD,
continuing into northeastern WY. 19Z RAP mesoanalysis shows
convective inhibition decreasing across the western Dakotas as
temperatures warm into the 80s with dewpoints remaining in the mid
to upper 60s. Steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from the
northern/central High Plains/Rockies have overspread this region,
and resultant strong instability, with MLCAPE around 2000-3500 J/kg,
has developed ahead of the front this afternoon. Large-scale lift
associated with an upper trough over the northern Rockies and
low-level convergence along the front will initiate thunderstorms,
likely around 20-21Z.

Initial development along the front should be discrete/supercellular
given 35-50 kt of effective bulk shear. Scattered large hail and
damaging winds are expected, with some potential for isolated very
large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter across northwestern SD/southwestern ND where instability will be greatest. A couple of
tornadoes may also occur across this region in the vicinity of a
surface triple point where low-level winds should remain backed to southeasterly, and in part of northeastern WY within a post-frontal
upslope flow regime. With the strongest mid-level winds forecast to
slightly lag the surface front and given the linear low-level
forcing, convection will very likely grow upscale this evening into
one or more bowing line segments. Damaging winds should therefore
become the primary severe threat with time as thunderstorms move
eastward into the central Dakotas.

..Gleason/Grams.. 06/10/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON 46290372 47250346 48130345 49030349 49050055 46640024
44820047 44300151 44050437 43990567 44210594 44810593
45240512 46290372



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