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ACUS11 KWNS 101718
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101717
INZ000-ILZ000-101915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0694
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

Areas affected...Central/Southern IL...Southwest IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 101717Z - 101915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and isolated hail are possible over
the region this afternoon. Convective trends across the region will
be monitored closely for increasing storm strength and a watch will
likely be needed eventually.

DISCUSSION...Abundant cloudiness and precipitation is helping to
maintain an effective warm front from southern IN northwestward to a
weak surface low about 25 mi E of BRL in far west-central IL.
Airmass south/southwest of this warm front is cloud-free, warm, and
moist. Latest mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg with
little remaining convective inhibition.

Thunderstorms have developed upstream of this warm and destabilizing
airmass across west-central IL, along an outflow boundary surging southeastward. Given the downstream instability, general expectation
is for storms to continue developing along this outflow boundary.
This area is on the southern fringe of the better flow aloft but
enough overlap exists for some potential organization with the
resulting MCS capable of damaging wind gusts. Even if solid
organization doesn't occur, strong updrafts along the outflow could
still result in water-loading and the potential for damaging wind
gusts. Additionally, some isolated hail is possible, particularly as
a result of storm mergers and brief updraft intensification.

..Mosier/Grams.. 06/10/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 38768996 39309061 40199107 40759009 40168837 39238689
38258752 38168869 38768996



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