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ACUS11 KWNS 101504
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101504
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-101700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0693
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1004 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

Areas affected...Central/Southern IL...Central/Southern IN...Western
KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 101504Z - 101700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across
portions of the lower and middle OH Valley during the next few
hours. Isolated and marginal nature of the threat will likely
preclude the need for a watch this morning into the early afternoon.
However, late afternoon thunderstorms across western and central IL
will likely merit an upgrade to Slight risk in the upcoming 1630Z
Convective Outlook.

DISCUSSION...Cluster of thunderstorms currently moving through
east-central IL and central IN, which originated via warm-air
advection in the wake of an overnight MCS, will continue to move
southeastward across the OH Valley. This cluster is displaced
northward of the better instability, suggesting a relatively low
threat for severe thunderstorms. Some hail may be possible as a
result of storm interaction, particularly on the back building west
end of the cluster, but the overall severe threat appears low.

More cellular convection has recently developed across far southern
IN and adjacent portions of western KY along the leading outflow
from the overnight MCS. As with areas farther north, a generally
isolated severe threat is expected given the lack of instability and displacement south of the stronger flow aloft. A few water-loaded
downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts constitute the highest
severe hazard.

Farther west, a complex surface pattern exists. A surface low was
analyzed just north of the IA/MO/IL border intersection with an
effective warm front extending southeastward across central IL. Warm
air advection across this boundary is supporting backbuilding
convection near PIA. As mentioned previously, some isolated hail is
possible in this area. A more widespread severe threat may develop
across western IL this afternoon along and south/southwest of the
warm front and an upgrade to Slight risk is probable with the
upcoming 1630Z Convective Outlook.

..Mosier/Grams.. 06/10/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 37628869 38298998 39289043 40019042 40848969 40768803
40578571 39898512 37768608 37628869



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